Climate Report: The Collapse of the Arctic Index and Its Impact on Weather Events in the Arab World and the World

Arab Weather - Maps tracking air masses and atmospheric pressure above the polar vortex indicate the polar vortex is collapsing, with several areas of high atmospheric pressure appearing within the Arctic vortex. Temperatures in the Arctic are also experiencing a significant rise compared to recent months, leading to the disintegration of polar air masses and a rise in their temperature.

How does the terminal stratospheric warming occur and the polar vortex collapse?

Every winter, strong westerly winds circulate high in the stratosphere above the Arctic, swirling around cold air in a low-pressure area. This is called the stratospheric polar vortex. In some years, the winds in the polar vortex temporarily weaken, or even reverse, flowing east to west. The cold air descends rapidly into the polar vortex, causing the stratosphere to warm by up to 50 degrees Celsius in just a few days. This is where the term "polar vortex warming" comes from.

Arctic indicators collapse...what does it mean?

The Arctic Oscillation Index is an indicator that measures the intensity of low pressure systems over the Arctic. Whenever the index is positive, it means that the low pressure systems over the Arctic are intensifying and the polar vortex is stable. When the index collapses and becomes negative, it means that a high pressure system has formed over the Arctic and that the so-called polar dome has collapsed.

When the Arctic Circle collapses, as it is happening now, the polar air becomes uncoherent and disperses, affecting areas around the pole. It can, in rare cases, penetrate into areas far from the pole. The polar vortex then weakens and becomes concentrated in northwest Canada, causing:

• The Arab world is affected by waves of stability and warmth due to the growth of a subtropical high.
• Northern Europe is affected by polar waves that bring snow and severe cold.
• The rest of Europe is affected by warm periods, accompanied by the passage of cold upper troughs that instill unstable weather conditions.
• The northern parts of America and Canada are affected by polar masses that bring snow and severe cold.

And God knows best.