Will closing the Strait of Hormuz spark a global climate crisis?

Arab Weather - The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important economic arteries, with nearly 20% of global oil exports passing through it—equivalent to approximately 17 million barrels per day. But is the risk of its closure limited to rising energy prices and market turmoil? Or does the issue extend beyond the economy to threaten global efforts to combat climate change?

In this article, we review the potential environmental and climate impacts of closing the Strait of Hormuz, and analyze how a small waterway could have a significant impact on the planet.

First: Why is the Strait of Hormuz important to the world?

The Strait of Hormuz stretches between the Sultanate of Oman and Iran, connecting the Arabian Gulf and the Arabian Sea. It is considered a vital outlet for Gulf countries to export oil and liquefied natural gas to the world. Any disruption to this strait would lead to a radical change in the global energy map.

Second: How could closing the strait affect climate change?

1. Increased fossil fuel consumption in maritime transport

With the strait closed, oil tankers will be forced to use longer routes through the Indian Ocean or the Red Sea, leading to:

• More fuel consumption
• Increased carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions
• Increasing the carbon footprint of the maritime transport sector

2. Return to polluting energy sources

Due to shortages in oil and gas supplies or rising prices, some countries may resort to using coal to fill the gap, which is the largest source of greenhouse gases.

3. Slowdown in renewable energy projects

Rising energy prices may force governments to:

• Postponing investment in clean energy projects
• Supporting more polluting traditional energy sources to ensure market stability

4. Rising global emissions

If global markets are affected for a prolonged period, this will lead to an overall increase in global emissions and threaten the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting global temperature rise to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Third: Are there potential positive effects?

Although the environmental impacts of closing the strait could be negative, there are scenarios that could prompt some countries to accelerate the transition to renewable energy, in order to:

• Reducing dependence on imported oil
• Strengthening national energy security

Fourth: What is the role of climate change in this context?

The relationship between climate change and geopolitical conflicts is deepening, and rising temperatures are affecting water resources and agriculture in the Gulf, which could lead to more political tensions and, consequently, greater potential for energy crises.

Conclusion:

Although the Strait of Hormuz is only a narrow waterway, its impact on the global economy and efforts to combat global warming is far-reaching. The potential closure of this waterway not only threatens energy security, but also highlights the fragility of the global order in the face of climate and geostrategic crises.