Scientific reasons behind the weak start to the rainy season in the Levant and the region

Arab Weather App - Jordan and the entire region have witnessed a noticeable delay in rainfall since the start of the rainy season, with weather events limited to limited areas in the north of the Kingdom and intermittently. This weakness is due to a combination of weather and climate factors that have affected the region over the past weeks. The following are the most prominent reasons that have contributed to the delay in the start of the rainy season so far.

Weak access of upper depressions to the region

The main reason behind the current weak rainfall in Jordan is the absence of effective weather systems, whether low-pressure systems or unstable weather patterns, which are typically the most prominent feature during the months of October and November. This is due to the absence of cold air masses in the upper layers of the atmosphere, which typically come from Europe towards the eastern Mediterranean.

This distribution of weather systems in the Northern Hemisphere over the past weeks has led to the absence of upper depressions in the eastern Mediterranean basin, with cold fronts concentrated toward central and western Europe. This weather pattern has limited the arrival of cold air masses to our region, weakening the chances of the formation of depressions, the primary source of rainfall in Jordan during the fall.

Tropical system activity in the Arabian Sea

Although it is not a major factor, it is influential in the emergence of atmospheric instability in the region. This is what the Arabian Sea has witnessed in terms of noticeable activity of tropical systems during the past period, which led to attracting large amounts of tropical moisture towards it. Because of the depth of the tropical system, it forms a system known as a water vapor monopoly system, and this matter reduced the flow of moisture towards the Levant, and thus weakened the chances of the formation of atmospheric instability cases that usually contribute to the beginning of the rainy season in Jordan and the region.

So far, weather indicators don't show any changes in weather patterns during the remainder of October that would allow rain to return to the Kingdom. However, the seasonal and monthly forecasts within the Arab Weather app indicate the possibility of changes to the weather system later, bringing with them an improvement in autumn rains.