Al-Musnad: Promising indicators for an active rainy season in the Arabian Peninsula

Professor of Climate, Dr. Abdullah Al-Musnad, who holds a PhD in Climate Change from the University of East Anglia in Britain, revealed climate indicators that may be promising for the upcoming rainy season in the Arabian Peninsula, pointing to the convergence of a number of climate factors that may support the chances of rain activity during the coming autumn season.

Al-Musnad explained that the rise in indicators of the El Niño phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, coinciding with expectations of the development of the positive phase of the Indian Ocean Oscillation (IOD), represents a climate signal that deserves to be monitored during the coming period, due to its potential impact on the patterns of moisture distribution and thermal convection in the region.

Climate indicators support the chances of moisture flowing towards the Arabian Peninsula

Al-Musnad explained that the convergence of these indicators may contribute to enhancing the activity of thermal convection in the western Indian Ocean and East Africa, which may increase the chances of larger amounts of moisture flowing from the Arabian Sea towards the Arabian Peninsula, factors that may support the activity of some rainy conditions during the coming season.

He stressed that these climatic signals are promising indicators and can be used to read seasonal forecasts, but they do not necessarily mean determining the amount of rainfall or its geographical distribution accurately, as the nature of the season remains linked to atmospheric developments during the coming period.

Weather factors will determine the strength of the upcoming rainy season.

The climate professor pointed out that the rainy season in the Arabian Peninsula is affected by a wide range of weather factors, most notably the location of upper-level troughs, the path of the jet stream, the timing of moisture surges, in addition to changes in atmospheric pressure patterns and the movement of air masses.

He added that these factors play a key role in determining where cumulonimbus clouds form and the chances of rainfall, both in terms of intensity and spatial distribution during the season.

Next fall under climate monitoring

Al-Musnad concluded by emphasizing that the coming autumn deserves careful climate monitoring and follow-up, given the existence of a set of long-range indicators that may have an effect on enhancing the chances of rain in parts of the Arabian Peninsula, while seasonal forecasts remain subject to change as the time period approaches.