Under Monitoring | Signs of the formation of the first tropical system in the Arabian Sea in early October

Sinan Khalaf - Meteorologists are monitoring the latest numerical model outputs available through the Arab Weather app, indicating a high probability of the first tropical storm forming in the Arabian Sea late this week and early October, which marks the start of the second active period of the hurricane and tropical storm season.

Satellites monitor

Low pressure system and rain in Gujarat

The latest satellite images show a low-pressure system centered over the western Indian state of Gujarat, accompanied by cumulus clouds and heavy rainfall , accompanied by lightning and thunder, causing localized flooding across large parts of the state, particularly its coastal areas.

The low pressure system is gradually moving westward.

Monitoring the possibility of the first tropical storm forming in the Arabian Sea

The low pressure system is expected to gradually move west and northwest toward the Arabian Sea over the coming days, gaining strength and moisture as it moves deeper into the warm sea waters toward the center of the Arabian Sea, marking the first tropical depression of the current season.

Follow the movement of clouds in the Arabian Sea directly via satellite

Weather experts confirm that the details of the tropical storm's path and the likelihood of it developing into a hurricane remain unclear due to the long timescale involved, necessitating continuous monitoring of the latest updates.

Previous tropical and cyclone cases formed in the Arabian Sea during October

It is worth noting that October is considered an active period for tropical conditions in the Arabian Sea , and the climate archive is full of many such cases, some of which turned into cyclones that later moved towards the Sultanate of Oman, most notably Cyclone Kyarr and Cyclone Luban .

What are the conditions for the formation of tropical conditions in the Arabian Sea?

When delving into the details of a tropical storm, it's important to understand the conditions that must be met to facilitate weather forecasting and determine whether thunderstorms will develop into a weather system.

First: The surface temperature and depth of water bodies:

The growth and development of tropical conditions depend primarily and largely on the presence of a body of water with a depth of more than 60 meters and a water temperature of 27 degrees Celsius or higher. Hot water is the fuel that powers this tropical system.

Returning to the Arabian Sea, we find that the surface water temperature ranges between 27 and 28 degrees Celsius, which is very suitable and ideal for the development of the weather. The water depth in the Arabian Sea also reaches approximately 3-5 km. These conditions are considered very suitable.

Second: Wind Shear

One of the most important and fundamental factors in the development of tropical storms is the weakening of wind shear. Wind shear is defined as the change in wind speed and direction, both vertically and horizontally. These winds weaken and limit the vertical growth of cumulonimbus clouds. They impede the clouds from thickening, causing them to become shallow and stratified, thus weakening the tropical system.

Numerical weather models face significant difficulty in monitoring, predicting, and simulating tropical conditions , especially before the formation of a tropical depression, in addition to the large number of weather variables.