Autumn snow in the Levant... Could the famous Alexa snowstorm happen again?

Arab Weather - The countries of the eastern Mediterranean basin were affected by a snowstorm during the late autumn of 2013. The first thing that comes to mind when you hear the word "snowstorm" in the fall is certainly the famous snowstorm "Alexa," which turned the tables on the winter snows. We are just days away from its eleventh anniversary.

Details of the snowstorm "Alexa" and the weather systems that caused it, God willing.

In detail, the story of the "Alexa" snowstorm began when large areas of the European continent were affected by a stubborn, solid high pressure system at the time. This caused an extremely cold, polar-originated air mass to rush directly from the Arctic Circle toward the Black Sea, then Turkey, and later to the eastern Mediterranean region, including the Kingdom, where it remained over us for two days.

As polar winds rushed directly towards the eastern basin of the Mediterranean, a deep low pressure system formed, laden with large quantities of clouds laden with heavy rain and snow. These clouds were waiting for God's will to unload their full load on the Levant in general, causing significant snowfall and massive rainfall.

Concurrently, the prevailing weather patterns in the region allowed for the formation of a deep low pressure system, initially centered over Syria. A new low pressure system soon developed over Lebanon, contributing to increased rainfall and snowfall.

Stable and warm weather preceded Storm Alexa, and the atmosphere was like spring.

Weather systems deceived the Levant residents, as the region experienced a spring-like atmosphere in early December 2013, with temperatures rising to the early twenties Celsius in most areas. However, this spring-like atmosphere was merely a prelude to the first low-pressure system to visit the Kingdom, and it was unlike previous low-pressure systems, particularly in terms of its extreme coldness and early timing.

When did the actual and direct impact of the snowstorm "Alexa" begin on the Kingdom?

The snowstorm began affecting all mountainous areas at dawn on Thursday, December 12, 2013, and its impact increased significantly during Friday and Saturday, forming the strongest snowstorm in December since the beginning of Jordanian climate records, and the strongest since the February 2003 storm that swept through the north and center of the Kingdom, including the capital, Amman, with great force, accompanied by heavy snowfall.

With the arrival of the main front accompanying the new low pressure system, snowfall became regular and intensified over most parts of the Kingdom, Palestine, southern Syria and Lebanon, with snow thickness exceeding two meters in the Ajloun Mountains, as well as in the highlands west of Nablus, while it approached one meter in the highlands of Balqa and northern Amman, in addition to the mountains of Tafilah and Hebron in the southern West Bank. All of these numbers are record numbers for the first half of December, and the region has not witnessed anything like them even in the winter season in recent years, going back to February of the famous snowy year 1992.

Severe cold weather accompanied the snowstorm and strong winds that swept the region.

With the onset of the deep depression and before its three main fronts passed, strong winds blew, reaching 90-100 km/h on more than five occasions in several Jordanian cities, including the capital, Amman. Remarkably, the stormy winds did not subside as usual with the snowfall, but rather increased in intensity, creating extreme snowstorms. Wind gusts reached 129 km/h at the Al-Taf/Balqa monitoring station, and their averages touched the 80 km/h mark.

As for temperatures, they were not too extreme above zero degrees Celsius in most areas except for the Shara Mountains, while the minimum temperature in the latter dropped to below -10 degrees Celsius, especially on Sunday night, setting a new record, God willing. Some Jordanian cities, including the capital Amman, recorded temperatures ranging from -2 to -4 degrees Celsius.

Could Alexa snowstorm happen again in the future?

In this context, the Alexa snowstorm that struck the Kingdom in 2013 is not considered an ordinary event, as it occurred in a region far removed from the North Pole and at the end of autumn, just before the actual onset of winter astronomically and before the start of the Al-Murabba'aniya in late December.

The formation of such weather systems, which cause storms like Alexa, from pressures, cold air masses, and their concentrations, does not occur every year, but rather once every few years. Furthermore, the countries of the eastern Mediterranean basin are located in an area with a high degree of snowfall.

Any change in the center of polar air masses alters the resulting weather patterns, making it impossible to predict the recurrence of similar snowstorms. It's important to note that snowfall is a natural weather event in the Levantine mountains during the winter, but it's impossible to compare them, as each weather condition has its own unique characteristics.

Storm Alexa has delivered exceptional rain and snow performance in previous years.

The actual snowstorm of that period produced more rain and snow in many areas than previous severe winter storms, up to the famous February 25, 1992, storm. The February 25, 2003, storm recorded similar snow accumulations in northern Amman, but in February 1992, it increased by 20-40 centimeters.

The snowstorm disrupted all aspects of public life in the region due to its severe impact. Snowstorm Alexa is considered a severe storm and is classified as extremely rare, with such storms occurring once every few years.

And God knows best.