Scientific reading.. Is climate change the reason for the weakness of the current rainy season?

Arab Weather - Since the beginning of winter, Jordan has witnessed a shortage in rainfall and an almost complete absence of major weather events (low pressure systems). Given the unusual weather conditions that the region has witnessed, the report issued by the Arab Weather Center explains the weakness of the rainy season so far and its relationship to climate change, the effects of which are now clearly evident in parts of the world.

Several reasons made the rainy season weak at the moment in Jordan

Arab Weather experts explained that the first reason for the weakness of the rainy season is that the shape of the weather systems in the northern hemisphere caused cold air masses to rush into the Kingdom and the eastern Mediterranean with a dry axis, meaning that the cold air masses did not cross large water bodies and were taking a continental path accompanied by an extension of the Siberian high, which resulted in cold and frost waves that occurred in late November and mid-December.

The second reason for the weakness of the rainy season so far is the occurrence of a major bend in the polar jet stream towards southern Europe, the central Mediterranean and northern Africa, which results in the concentration of low-pressure systems in those regions, accompanied by heavy rains and heavy snowfall, and in return it pushes strong high-pressure systems towards the Kingdom and the eastern Mediterranean.

In continuation of the aforementioned reasons, the weakness of the rainy season is due to the development of a climate cycle in the Pacific Ocean, specifically off the coast of Peru, called La Nina, which means a cooling of the waters of the tropical region of the Pacific Ocean and a decrease in the water temperature below average, which was reflected in the region by the intensification of high-pressure systems that act as a barrier to the advance of low-pressure systems.

Is climate change the reason for the weakness of the current rainy season?

In answer to this question, we can delve deeper into the matter, as the atmosphere and oceans follow natural cycles that extend from 5 to 30 years, as they produce certain weather patterns in the northern hemisphere. At the same time, we are witnessing the phenomenon of global warming, which has worsened since the beginning of the industrial revolution in 1840 until the present time. During this period, humans have contributed significantly to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions that trap heat in the atmosphere and reflect it back to the Earth, resulting in an increase in temperatures by an amount ranging between 1-2 degrees Celsius.

Arab Weather explains that although the phenomenon of global warming has been around for many years, the weather changes we are witnessing now are largely related to the temperature of the ocean surface and the distribution of air masses around us. However, it cannot be ruled out that climate change is the main cause of the weak rainy season, especially since the Kingdom's climate fluctuates in terms of rainfall amounts in the winter seasons. It cannot be ignored that global warming has contributed to increasing extreme weather conditions in the region, God willing. Referring to historical data, we find that the weak rainy season we are experiencing is not unusual or exceptional, but rather it has happened in previous periods and will be repeated, God willing, in the future many times.

God knows best.