What is the probability that the rainy condition in the south of the Arabian Peninsula will develop into a full-fledged tropical system?

Arab Weather - The countries of the southern Arabian Peninsula are being affected by an easterly wave within an extension of the monsoon depression, accompanied by unstable weather conditions including seasonal thunderstorms. This wave is affecting large areas of the Sultanate of Oman, Yemen, and western Saudi Arabia, in addition to some areas in the UAE, and is expected to continue for several days.

This wave is characterized by high humidity and convection in the active layers of the atmosphere, which increases cloud density and develops into heavy thunderstorms, with a chance of hail and active surface winds that stir up dust and sand in some areas.

What is the probability of the condition developing into a full-fledged tropical system?

On the other hand, the thunderstorms expected to form over India are not expected to develop into a full-fledged tropical system, due to the intensity of monsoon winds. These winds are considered unfavorable and unsuitable for the development of a tropical system into a storm or hurricane, as they disperse the clouds and thus prevent them from cohering together and uniting to form a strong weather system.

From a statistical and climatological perspective, tropical conditions are not usually observed in the Arabian Sea during the peak of winter and summer. Rather, tropical conditions form during autumn and spring, the period of time when the absolute control of wind shear is absent and the weather is calm.

And God knows best.