What is the relationship between a weak start to the rainy season and the chances of snow later in the winter?

Arab Weather - Many people wonder about the relationship between low rainfall in autumn and the chances of snowfall in winter. According to experts at the Arab Weather Center, there is no direct link between low rainfall and the likelihood of snowfall. Snowfall in the Eastern Mediterranean region is a complex weather phenomenon influenced by numerous surrounding atmospheric conditions.

The lack of rainfall in autumn is considered part of the natural weather fluctuations that occur between transitional seasons, and cannot be considered evidence that it will reduce the chances of snowfall in winter.

Climate records show that there have been many years where weak rainy seasons began in the fall, followed by strong snowstorms:

Weather experts at the Arab Weather Center said that weak rainy seasons are not statistically linked to the chances of snowstorms and snowfall. There are many years in which weak rainy seasons have been accompanied by snowstorms. For example, Storm Alexa came in a dry rainy season and the beginning of autumn was weak.

In the 1999/2000 season, months 11 and 12 (November and December) were almost dry, and the beginning of the season was very weak, except that a snowstorm came at the end of month 1.

In the 1958/1959 season, rainfall began weakly, followed by several consecutive snowstorms. There were five seasons in which autumn was weak, and snow fell in three of these seasons, primarily in the mid-altitude areas.

The implication of these figures is that there is no correlation between a weak rainy season and the absence of snowstorms; in fact, the chances of snow sometimes increase during weak seasons. This highlights that low rainfall in autumn does not reduce the likelihood of snowfall later on; indeed, in some cases, the chances of snow may be higher during seasons with a weak start, which underscores the variable nature of Jordan's climate.