Does an early first winter necessarily mean a strong season?

Weather of Arabia - Sinan Khalaf - The rain showers that fell on some regions of the Kingdom at the beginning of this October raised many questions about the reality of this year’s rainy season, as some considered that these rains were early and indicated a strong rainy season, which has no connection to reality.

Is the first winter of the year considered early?

Here it must be clarified that what is known as the “first winter” often affects the Kingdom statistically in the second half of October, while precipitation before this date is considered “random” and “irregular” in general, and is local in nature and affects... Narrow and limited geographical scopes, which is exactly what the Kingdom is experiencing these days.
 

So, do the early rains witnessed by the Kingdom indicate a strong rainy season?

As for the relationship of the timing of the “first winter” to the rainy season and its strength, the weather forecasting team at “Arab Weather” explains that until now statistical studies have not found any direct or indirect link between the timing of the start of the rainy season and its intensity, which means that the first winter, if it is early, is not It necessarily means the strength of the rainy season.

Here we at “Arab Weather” would like to recall what happened in the 2013/2014 rainy season, when the Kingdom was exposed early to the famous snow storm “Alexa” in the fall, and although the storm was early, it was followed by the longest rain outage that the Kingdom had known in decades. In recent years, the rainfall did not exceed ten millimeters in the most important agricultural areas in the north and center of the Kingdom throughout the days of Al-Murabbaniyya and most of the days of the Pentecost, then the “winter storm Misra” came to save the rainy season from the specter of real drought! ..So early winter or early snow does not necessarily mean a strong season.