Does the lack of rain in October indicate a weak rainy season?

Arab Weather - The Kingdom is experiencing a lack of rainfall this month, raising questions about whether this indicates a weak rainy season. However, Arab Weather experts confirm that this phenomenon is normal and cannot be definitively indicative of a full rainy season.

Is the weak rainfall in October an indication of a weak rainy season?

Arab Weather experts say there's no scientific link between the lack of rainfall or the absence of low-pressure systems in October and the intensity of the subsequent rainy season. To date, there are no climate studies or research indicating this relationship. Some seasons have witnessed early rainfall and snowfall during the fall, followed by dry winter months. In other seasons, fall began dry but ended with rainfall above seasonal averages.

Experts explained that the rainy season in the Mediterranean and Middle East is linked to several factors and weather phenomena that affect it during the fall and winter seasons, or the rainy season in general. The most prominent of these factors are:

Atmospheric behavior : This refers to the movement and undulations that characterize the jet stream. In some seasons, the jet stream is directed southward throughout the season, enhancing rainfall and the formation of low-pressure systems in some regions. In other seasons, the jet stream's undulations are concentrated around the Arctic Circle and western and northern Europe, weakening the flow of rain-bearing low-pressure systems into the region.

Weather systems: such as the extension of the Siberian High and the position of the jet stream, as the location of these systems affects the arrival of moist and cold air masses to Jordan.

Experts pointed out that monitoring climate and statistical models is the best way to predict the shape of the rainy season before it occurs. They also noted the importance of regularly monitoring seasonal and monthly bulletins issued by the Arab Weather app, which are prepared by specialists to provide the latest forecasts and weather developments.

Experts emphasized that weak rainfall in October is normal and has occurred in several previous seasons. However, it does not necessarily indicate a weak rainy season, as the rainy season ultimately depends on the interaction of several local and global weather factors during the fall and winter.