Under Monitoring: Numerical models predict the possibility of a tropical depression forming in the Arabian Sea next week.

Arab Weather - The outputs of several global numerical models, including the European numerical model enhanced with artificial intelligence techniques, indicate the possibility of a tropical depression forming in the eastern Arabian Sea during the coming week. This coincides with the Arabian Sea entering its first monsoon disturbance period, which typically extends through May and June and is known to precede the onset of monsoon activity in the region.

Thunderstorms are expected to begin forming in the Arabian Sea near India starting this weekend. Some computer models, particularly the European model, predict that this tropical disturbance in the Arabian Sea will develop into the first tropical depression of the season next week.

50% chance of tropical depression forming in the Arabian Sea next week

Regarding the potential tropical system, experts at the Arabia Weather Center confirmed that the probability of its formation is classified as medium, reaching approximately 50%. This probability is reinforced by the agreement of some other numerical models with the European model in indicating this tropical system, such as the German model.

However, the timeframe is still relatively distant, coupled with the complex nature of tropical systems, which makes it too early to make a final judgment about the formation and trajectory of the event. We at the Arab Weather Center encourage you to follow the weather updates on the Arab Weather app.

And God knows best.