An exceptional weather system with tropical characteristics will occur in the Mediterranean in 2023. Will it be repeated this year?

Arab Weather - Experts at the Arab Weather Regional Center are monitoring the latest computer model outputs for monitoring water surface temperatures. They noted that the eastern Mediterranean basin is witnessing a rise in water surface temperatures, reaching 27 to 30 degrees Celsius in its central part, especially the Ionian Sea, which is considered part of the Mediterranean and from which Hurricane Daniel originated last year. Thus, the water surface temperature has exceeded its usual rates by about 3-5 degrees Celsius, and the Mediterranean is likely to witness further increases in light of the dominance of hot air masses (a marine heat wave) with the expansion of hot air from the African continent towards the European continent.

The warming of the Mediterranean Sea is considered a fertile environment for the formation of Mediterranean storms.

Meteorologists at Arab Weather noted that these very warm and humid weather conditions in the Mediterranean Sea may be a fertile environment contributing to the formation of Mediterranean storms (Medicanes), which are similar to tropical storms and cyclones in terms of structure and accompanying weather phenomena, but occur in the Mediterranean region.

These storms have subtropical characteristics, similar to those that originate near the equator. Although they are less powerful than storms originating in the oceans and open seas, they are no less dangerous and destructive. Mediterranean storms appear on satellite images as powerful thunderstorms around a low-pressure center, accompanied by strong winds and heavy rainfall. The storm center is warm. These storms feed on the heat and moisture of the ocean surface and lose much of their power upon entering land.

These storms are classified as subtropical depressions, followed by subtropical storms, and sometimes even reaching the level of a subtropical Mediterranean cyclone, known as a "medicane." For example, the Mediterranean cyclone "Ianos" struck Greece in 2020.

As its anniversary approaches... Storm Daniel is an exceptional weather system in the Mediterranean.

Meteorologists at the Arab Weather Center said that the central part of the Mediterranean, specifically the Ionian Sea region between Italy and the Balkans, where Hurricane Daniel was launched last year, is experiencing significant warming, with surface water temperatures reaching over 30 degrees Celsius, a fertile environment for the formation of Mediterranean storms.

Going back to last year's archives, specifically September 2023, Libya was hit by the subtropical storm "Daniel," which resulted from the warming of the Mediterranean Sea. Although it did not reach the classification of a Mediterranean hurricane, its effects were catastrophic for several reasons, most notably the water temperature in the central Mediterranean, which was the highest since 2009, ranging between 27 and 30 degrees Celsius, creating a fertile environment for the growth of this type of storm.

The storm's slow movement also caused it to remain over the sea for a long period, allowing it to develop from a subtropical Mediterranean depression into a strong subtropical storm before reaching Libya. Warm winds flowing toward the storm's center increased the atmospheric instability, which contributed to the storm's strengthening. Huge amounts of rain fell, exceeding 400 mm in a single day, an amount close to what some Jordanian cities receive in an entire year.

Will Hurricane Daniel repeat?

In this context, many people are wondering about the possibility of a recurrence of Hurricane Daniel. Meteorologists at the Arabia Weather Center said that Hurricane Daniel was exceptional, combining weather and topographical factors that had catastrophic effects on the ground. However, it cannot be confirmed that Hurricane Daniel will recur this year, as weather patterns vary from year to year. There is no doubt, however, that the water surface temperature in the eastern Mediterranean basin is suitable for the development of Mediterranean storms next fall. However, this requires special weather conditions, such as the separation of the upper air depression from the general jet stream circulation and its acquisition of subtropical characteristics after its prolonged stay over the water surface.

A long history of Mediterranean storms and hurricanes

It's worth noting that historically, the Mediterranean has been exposed to weather patterns (Mediterranean storms) more severe than Hurricane Daniel, some of which reached the strength of a Category 1 tropical cyclone. Perhaps the most striking example of a Mediterranean hurricane occurred in mid-January 1995, when a hurricane formed in the central Mediterranean, in the maritime area between Italy, Greece, and Libya. These same maritime areas also witnessed the formation of a Mediterranean hurricane in 2014, called Hurricane Gandrisa, which primarily affected Sicily and Malta, bringing heavy rains, hail, and strong winds reaching speeds of 150 km/h.

Cold air masses coming from the north are the primary factor in the formation of such weather systems. The interaction of this cold air with warm, moist air coming from the south creates frontal depressions, which coincide with sea waters warming to over 20 degrees Celsius, in addition to the presence of extremely turbulent weather conditions.

If all of the above weather conditions are met, the only remaining condition is for the developing low-pressure system to separate from the cold air mass to the north and acquire sufficient tropical characteristics. This occurs only very rarely.

And God knows best.