Will the winter of 2026 be cold in Saudi Arabia?

Arab Weather - Weather forecasters at the Arab Weather Center indicated that the Earth goes through successive climatic cycles that affect global weather patterns, most notably the El Niño and La Niña phenomena, which reflect changes in the temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean waters and affect the distribution of rainfall and temperature globally. In addition, complex climatic indicators play a pivotal role in shaping seasonal forecasts, such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index, which controls the strength or weakness of the polar vortex and the extent to which cold air masses rush towards the middle and lower latitudes.

The interaction of these factors produces complex weather patterns that vary from year to year, making it scientifically impossible to predict the strength and cold of the coming winter at this early stage. Therefore, any attempt to make premature judgments about the severity of the winter or the abundance of rainfall remains speculative, not definitive, and is not based on scientific principles until the dominant weather systems become clearer as winter actually approaches.

The La Niña phenomenon is prevalent during winter and is statistically linked to cold winter seasons.

Forecasters at the Arab Weather Center indicated that the La Niña phenomenon is expected to prevail during the winter of 2025/2026 and is statistically linked to periods of rain interruption in the Middle East region, and to the recurrence of cold waves, as it is linked to the intensification of the Siberian High’s influence on the Arabian Peninsula and the Levant during the winter season.

The La Niña phenomenon affects the Arab region, often with less rainfall in the Levant, but the opposite occurs in the Maghreb, where rainfall increases and temperatures drop below average. The chance of floods and flash floods increases in the Maghreb, while the chance of drought increases in the Levant due to the shape of weather systems that allow the Siberian high-pressure system to expand.

And God knows best.