Will the winter of 2025 be cold?

Arab Weather - Seasonal forecasts are based on several factors and scientific foundations, including: the behavior of the atmosphere during the past months in the Northern Hemisphere, the surface temperatures of different bodies of water around the world, in addition to running supercomputers to extract what is called "years of similarity," after which the forecasts are built on two foundations: statistical and analytical.

The results of global quarterly numerical modeling are also taken into account to produce quarterly forecasts that provide an overview of expected weather conditions over the coming months. These quarterly forecasts differ from daily forecasts in that they are less detailed and more comprehensive, and they must be updated monthly. However, their accuracy is not always as high as expected, so meteorologists around the world continue to conduct research to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. Consequently, the information circulated annually is not based on any solid scientific foundation.

Weather factors influence weather patterns in winter, and it is too early to delve into their control.

Weather forecasters at the Arab Weather Center pointed out that the Earth goes through successive climatic cycles that affect global weather patterns, most notably the El Niño and La Niña phenomena, which reflect changes in the temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean and affect the distribution of rainfall and temperature globally. In addition, complex climatic indicators play a pivotal role in shaping seasonal forecasts, such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index, which controls the strength or weakness of the polar vortex and the extent to which cold air masses rush towards the middle and lower latitudes, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, which affects the activity of Atlantic depressions and the paths of winter storms in Europe, North Africa, and West Asia, the Indian Ocean Oscillation (IOD) index, which is responsible for modifying the paths of moisture and the movement of monsoon currents in the Indian Ocean and its indirect effect on the Middle East, as well as the MJO oscillation, which is represented by the transfer of convection waves across the tropics, which affects the response of winter jet streams and the distribution of atmospheric pressure systems.

The interaction of these factors produces complex weather patterns that vary from year to year, making it scientifically impossible to predict the strength of the coming winter at this early stage. Therefore, any attempt to prematurely assess the severity of the winter or the abundance of rainfall remains speculative, not definitive, and lacks scientific basis until the dominant weather systems become clearer as winter actually approaches.

The La Niña phenomenon is prevalent during winter and is statistically linked to cold winter seasons.

Forecasters at the Arab Weather Center indicated that the La Niña phenomenon is expected to prevail during the winter of 2025/2026 and is statistically linked to periods of rain interruption in the Middle East region, and to the recurrence of cold waves, as it is linked to the intensification of the Siberian High’s influence on the Arabian Peninsula and the Levant during the winter season.

The La Niña phenomenon affects the Arab region, often with less rainfall in the Levant, but the opposite occurs in the Maghreb, where rainfall increases and temperatures drop below average. The chance of floods and flash floods increases in the Maghreb, while the chance of drought increases in the Levant due to the shape of weather systems that allow the Siberian high-pressure system to expand.

Read also: Does the growing "La Niña" phenomenon indicate a colder winter and higher chances of snow?

And God knows best.