Will the Wasm rains start early in Saudi Arabia this year?

The Wasm season is considered one of the most important rainy seasons in Saudi Arabia during the year. It usually comes in the fall, bringing abundant bounty and irrigating the lands after a scorching, dry summer.

The Arab Weather forecasting team noted that weather systems across the Arabian Peninsula and the eastern Mediterranean will undergo a complete transformation during the Wasm season. The influence of the seasonal Indian low pressure system ends, and an extension of the Red Sea low pressure system begins to become active as a response to the passage of autumnal air masses over the eastern Mediterranean, the Levant, and Egypt.

Air mass conflict in the Wasm season

At this stage, a conflict occurs between hot air masses from the south and cooler autumnal air masses coming from the north over the Arabian Peninsula. The Red Sea low is the dominant force in this confrontation. The center of this low is usually over Hail at the beginning of the season, leading to the development of unstable weather conditions supported by the heat of the ground and the coldness of the upper layers, with sufficient moisture to form cumulus clouds that bring rain.

Reasons for the weakness of the Wasm season in some years:

• The arrival of cold air masses and low-pressure systems towards the eastern Mediterranean has been delayed, delaying the start of the season.
• Surface temperatures are lower than their monthly average, reducing the ability of cumulus clouds to form.
• The strength of the jet stream over the Arabian Peninsula, which weakens atmospheric instability.
• The strength of the low pressure system in the western Mediterranean, which strengthens the jet stream and weakens the wasm.

Initial forecasts for the Wasm season until the end of October

Regarding this year's Wasm season, weather forecasts issued by Arabia Weather predict a widespread and widespread delay in rainfall until the end of October. Analyses indicate that the onset of atmospheric instability may be delayed due to the weak arrival of cooler air masses towards the eastern Mediterranean. This means that much of the Kingdom will not receive its usual rainfall on its traditional schedule.

Influential global factors

In addition, there are indirect global factors that influence the performance of the Wasm season, such as El Niño, La Niña, and ocean oscillations, which require independent scientific detail to accurately monitor them.