Saudi Meteorology: Indications of the development of the El Niño phenomenon and its expected effects on the Kingdom

In a report issued by the Regional Center for Climate Change on the latest developments of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon for 2026, the center explained, based on recent climate indicators, that the phenomenon is currently in a neutral phase, as the value of the Niño 3.4 index reached approximately (+0.39) degrees Celsius as of May 5, 2026, which is within the neutral range between (-0.80) and (+0.80) degrees Celsius.

The report indicated that the monthly forecasts for the Niño 3.4 index from May to October 2026 point to a very high probability of an El Niño event developing, with sea surface temperatures expected to exceed +0.8°C. The forecasts also indicate a gradual increase in sea surface temperature variations above the normal average, reaching approximately +1.1°C in May, +1.4°C in June, +1.8°C in July, +2.3°C in August, +2.5°C in September, and finally reaching around +2.8°C by October 2026. This makes it highly likely that the El Niño event will develop into a Super El Niño, the last of which was recorded in 2015 and 2016.

The report indicated that the development of the El Niño phenomenon may contribute - God willing - to increasing the likelihood of rainfall in the southwestern highlands during the coming summer, and in western Saudi Arabia during the coming autumn (September - November 2026), with increased risks of flash floods and flooding, in addition to potential rain effects on large areas of the Kingdom during the coming rainy season extending from October 2026 to May 2027.

It is expected - God willing - that the phenomenon will contribute to raising the average temperatures throughout the year, in addition to raising the maximum and minimum temperatures, which may lead to an increase in the intensity of heat waves during the coming summer and autumn seasons, and reduce the chances of temperatures dropping at night, in addition to reducing the likelihood of severe cold waves occurring during the coming winter season.

The center notes that El Niño predictions inherently involve a degree of uncertainty related to numerical models, and the center is working to continue monitoring and following up on the developments of the phenomenon, especially after passing the spring period extending from February to May, which is usually one of the least stable periods in global climate forecasts.