The Arabian Gulf in the second half of May: A gradual return to summer weather, with high temperatures and dust storms.

Arab Weather - Sinan Khalaf - The latest weather analyses and archival data indicate that May will witness significant climate changes in the Arabian Peninsula, as the weather begins to gradually transition towards summer. Hot and dry air masses will continue to dominate the region, enhancing weather stability, along with the onset of activity of the northeastern Al-Bawarih winds. Meteorologists are also continuing to monitor early indicators of the tropical season in the Arabian Sea.

The high pressure will intensify and the weather will be stable and dry.

Forecasts show an increase in the influence of a high-pressure system over most areas of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and southern Iraq over the coming days. This will enhance weather stability, control low-pressure systems, and lead to sunny and dry conditions, with a noticeable decrease in humidity, especially in the interior regions of these countries.

Active winds and poor visibility

As summer approaches, the Buwarih winds begin their usual activity, blowing from the northeast at high speed across the eastern and central regions of Saudi Arabia, passing through Kuwait and Qatar. These winds are characterized by their dryness and strength, causing dust storms in many areas and reduced horizontal visibility, especially during the daytime.

Rain chances are declining, with local showers in the south.

As the influence of spring depressions recedes over the region, the chances of rain are diminishing across most of the Arabian Peninsula. However, the chance of local thunderstorms remains over the southwestern mountainous highlands of Saudi Arabia (Asir, Jazan, and Al-Baha) as a result of the interaction between tropical moisture and the mountainous terrain.

An archival look at possible tropical activity in the Arabian Sea.

Meanwhile, climate data indicate that the surface temperature of the Arabian Sea is expected to rise to 29-30°C, increasing the likelihood of tropical disturbances developing during the second half of May and until the end of June. Archivally, early tropical conditions have been recorded in some years during this period, reflecting the region's geographic and environmental susceptibility to the development of early tropical activity.

Although the typical path of tropical conditions during this period is eastward toward India, some climate scenarios indicate the possibility of indirect impacts on the Sultanate of Oman and southern Yemen. Some of these weather systems are also likely to push tropical moisture toward the southern Arabian Peninsula.